A few years ago, my older brother introduced me to Jersey Mike's. I was skeptical as I’m not really a sandwich guy, but like most older brothers, he was right. Since then, I’ve not only become a sandwich guy, but it has also become my favorite sandwich shop.
Suddenly, I found myself with a new interest in the quick-serve restaurant (QSR) space, so several months ago, I decided to run an experiment. I signed up for their loyalty program, and collected every SMS message they sent me to pull back the curtain on the lifecycle program powering ~15M+ members and $3.3B in yearly sales
And what I found was a masterclass in habit engineering. Most brands think experimentation means constantly coming up with new creative concepts and campaigns. What Jersey Mike’s figured out is that experimentation doesn’t always have to be complicated. They focus on simplicity and repetition to build habits.
The SMS strategy: predictive simplicity
What’s really interesting about the entire SMS approach is that it appears to be built around four specific offer archetypes designed to drive order frequency.
Free Delivery: By removing the delivery fee and the need to leave the house, they eliminate the primary friction point of a lunch decision.
Double Points: These messages gamify loyalty. By doubling the points, they introduce a "sunk cost" fallacy, where it feels like you're losing money if you don’t order your sandwich from them.
Cause-Related: These messages break the transactional rhythm. It gives the habitual user a "reason" to order that feels bigger than just hunger.
Events & Seasons: These texts tie the brand to your external world, and they position Jersey Mike’s as the default choice for specific cultural moments.
Why frequency beats AOV
By sending the same text around 9:15 am, the marketing team reduces the "mental work" for the customer. They don’t have to evaluate a new offer, they just have to decide if they’re hungry or not. And truthfully, that’s what great marketing is all about: helping customers make decisions faster. Instead of using SMS to increase the average order value, they use SMS to push the customer into the app, where the UI naturally increases order value through upsells like sides, drinks, and additional customization. Once a user is in the app, digital cross-selling naturally drives higher ticket prices than walk-ins.
Here’s a fictional example of what this looks like if you model this out:
Metric | Audience: One-off guest | Audience: Loyalty program member |
|---|---|---|
Average order value (AOV) | One-off guest: $25 | Loyalty program member: $15 |
90-Day frequency | One-off guest: 4 visits (1/month) | Loyalty program member: 12 visits (1/week) |
90-Day revenue | One-off guest: $100 | Loyalty program member: $180 (80% higher) |
Data captured | One-off guest: 4 transaction points | Loyalty program member: 12 transaction points |
Retention status | One-off guest: High churn risk | Loyalty program member: Predictable revenue |
The “sub above” lifecycle framework
Jersey Mike’s wasn't acquired for $8 billion because they make a "Sub Above" (though the deliciousness certainly helps). They were acquired because they’ve successfully programmed their members to act on a recurring nudge. Here is how you can replicate their playbook:
Send-time optimization: Most people decide what they’re going to have for lunch between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM. By hitting the phone at 9:15 AM, they aren't just sending a text; they are occupying the pre-cognitive window. They win or lose the decision before the consumer even knows they’re making one by sending the message before lunchtime. This type of insight doesn’t just apply to QSR either; people tend to have natural rhythms where they’re most primed to pay attention.
Controlled variables: By keeping the offer (“Free Delivery”) and the creative (a simple text) constant, the only variable that changes is the external environment (weather, local events, or day of the week). This allows their data team to isolate exactly which factors drive incremental lift.
The frequency engine: High-performing QSRs know frequency is a leading indicator that drives AOV. If you build the habit of frequency, the digital UI will handle the AOV growth for you.
The lesson
Frequency drives predictable revenue while AOV drives short-term lifts. If you emphasize AOV too hard, you risk degrading long-term customer habits, which are often the best indicator for a healthy LTV. Solve for frequency and then figure out how to solve for AOV. Consistent behavior is worth more than purchases in the long term.